Our pick
Under 3.5 Goals
xG
1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.5
43%
Both score
50%
The model's strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals at 78%, against a 71% norm in this competition. Expected goals are 1.25 for Cyprus and 1.16 for Slovenia, so a low-scoring game fits the numbers. Home win is 37%, draw 30%, away 33%, only a slight lean to Cyprus.
Cyprus
Average
Slovenia
Above average
2
Cyprus
3
Draws
5
Slovenia