Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia Prediction — Brazilian Série A

Our pick

Over 1.5 Goals

77.8%

xG

1.7 – 1.1

Over 2.5

53%

Both score

56%

Form

Full stats →

Athletico ParanaenseDWDLD

BahiaLLWWW

Match analysis

Model generated

Athletico Paranaense favoured at 50%, in a middling game

The model projects 1.69 goals for Athletico Paranaense and 1.12 for Bahia, giving 50% for the home win, 26% for the draw and 24% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 1000 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 12%
Expected goals: 1.69 - 1.12
Clean sheet chance: Athletico Paranaense 33%, Bahia 19%

Match result

1X2

Athletico Paranaense49.8%

Draw25.7%

Bahia24.4%

Model rating

All ratings →

6.5

Athletico Paranaense

Above average

6.4

Bahia

Above average

Athletico ParanaenseLast 10 games

Bahia

1.70Points per game1.60

1.9Goals scored per game1.5

1.5Goals conceded per game1.2

60%Over 2.5 goals50%

70%Both teams scored60%

30%Clean sheets30%

10%Failed to score30%

Recent results

Athletico ParanaenseDWDLD

BahiaLLWWW

Brazilian Série A

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo47′ 0-0	29	+32	61
2	Palmeiras51′ 3-0	29	+29	60
3	Athletico Paranaense	28	+11	49
4	Fluminense47′ 0-0	29	+8	49
5	Bahia	28	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	+2	45
7	Atlético Mineiro	27	+4	40
8	Santos	27	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	-6	38
10	Bragantino	27	+2	36
11	São Paulo	27	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	-4	35
13	Vitória	28	-14	33
14	Corinthians51′ 0-3	29	-6	32
15	Mirassol	28	-9	32
16▲	Internacional47′ 1-0	29	-5	31
17▼	Vasco da Gama	27	-7	31
18▼	Grêmio47′ 0-1	29	-9	29
19	Remo	28	-15	23
20	Chapecoense	27	-24	18