Our pick
Home Win
xG
1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.5
51%
Both score
49%
The model favours Switzerland at home: 62% to win, against a 46% norm for this competition. That gap, more than the raw figure, is why it is the strongest read. Expected goals are 1.90 for Switzerland and 0.83 for Slovenia.
Switzerland
Above average
Slovenia
Above average
7
Switzerland
1
Draws
2
Slovenia