Our pick
Away or Draw (X2)
xG
1.3 – 1.6
Over 2.5
57%
Both score
60%
The model's strongest read is Lebanon not losing. Away or Draw comes out at 69%, against a 52% norm for this competition, and that gap matters more than the raw figure. Expected goals are 1.35 for Qatar and 1.64 for Lebanon.
Qatar
Average
Lebanon
Above average
4
Qatar
2
Draws
0
Lebanon