Valencia vs Real Sociedad prediction, Spanish La Liga

The model gives Valencia a 41% chance to win at home against Real Sociedad's 33%, with a draw at 26%, so this is a lean rather than a strong call. Valencia's 1.43 expected goals against 1.26 for Real Sociedad is the reason, but Valencia have been running colder lately, taking 0.5 points a game over their last 6 against 1.2 across the sample. The goals markets sit near 50-50, so there is little edge there.