Our pick
Home Win
xG
2.4 – 1.2
Over 2.5
69%
Both score
62%
The model makes Riga FC the likely winner at 65%, against a 49% norm for home wins in this competition, so that gap is the main signal. Expected goals are 2.40 for Riga and 1.15 for Vardar. Riga's attack meets Vardar's second-weakest defence.
2
Riga FC
0
Draws
0
Vardar