Our pick
Home Win
xG
1.9 – 0.7
Over 2.5
49%
Both score
44%
The model gives Lithuania a 66% chance of winning, against a 46% norm for this competition, so that gap is the strongest read. It expects 1.93 goals for Lithuania and 0.70 for Liechtenstein, and Lithuania have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6. Goals markets sit close to a coin flip, so there is little edge there.
Lithuania
Average
Liechtenstein
Average
5
Lithuania
1
Draws
1
Liechtenstein