Our pick
Home Win
xG
1.9 – 0.7
Over 2.5
46%
Both score
42%
The model favours Colombia at 65% for a home win, well above the 49% norm in this competition. That gap is the strongest read. Peru's attack, 81st weakest, faces Colombia's defence, 3rd best, so the model expects 1.86 goals to 0.67.
Colombia
Above average
Peru
Average
5
Colombia
3
Draws
2
Peru