Our pick
Home Win
xG
1.9 – 0.7
Over 2.5
46%
Both score
42%
The model makes Colombia the clear pick at 65% to win. It expects 1.86 goals for Colombia and 0.67 for Peru, driven by Peru's weak attack facing Colombia's third-best defence. The 65% is well above the 49% norm for home wins in this competition.
Colombia
Above average
Peru
Average
5
Colombia
3
Draws
2
Peru