Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid prediction, UEFA Champions League
Our pick
Home or Draw (1X)
74.9%
xG
2.1 – 1.4
Over 2.5
66%
Both score
65%
Form
Full stats →
Real MadridWLWWW
Atlético MadridWWWWLMatch analysis
Model generatedReal Madrid favoured at 54%, in a high-scoring game
The model projects 2.05 goals for Real Madrid and 1.35 for Atlético Madrid, giving 54% for the home win, 21% for the draw and 25% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 1866 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
- Most likely scoreline: 2-1 at 9%
- Expected goals: 2.05 - 1.35
- Clean sheet chance: Real Madrid 26%, Atlético Madrid 13%
Match result
1X2Real Madrid53.8%
Draw21.1%
Atlético Madrid25.1%
Real MadridLast 10 gamesAtlético Madrid2.40Points per game1.90
2.5Goals scored per game2.0
1.1Goals conceded per game1.5
80%Over 2.5 goals90%
70%Both teams scored60%
20%Clean sheets30%
10%Failed to score10%
Recent results
UEFA Champions League
Full table →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Barcelona | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 |  Manchester United | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 |  Como | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 |  Stuttgart | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Manchester City | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 |  Aston Villa | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Lens | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Real Betis | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 |  Liverpool | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 |  Arsenal | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 |  Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 |  Villarreal | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 |  Lille | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atlético Madrid | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 |  Porto | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 |  RB Leipzig | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 |  Feyenoord | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Top four Bottom three
Head to head
Last 8 meetings4
Real Madrid
2
Draws
2
Atlético Madrid
- 12 Mar 25Atlético Madrid 1-0 Real Madrid
- 4 Mar 25Real Madrid 2-1 Atlético Madrid
- 10 May 17Atlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
- 2 May 17Real Madrid 3-0 Atlético Madrid
- 28 May 16Real Madrid 5-3 Atlético Madrid