Our pick
Home Win
xG
2.1 – 0.9
Over 2.5
57%
Both score
53%
The model makes Brazil the likely winner at 63%, well above the 48% norm for this competition. Brazil's attack rates 6th best against Australia's 180th weakest defence. Expected goals are 2.05 to 0.91, so the call rests on that gap.
Brazil
Above average
Australia
Average
4
Brazil
1
Draws
0
Australia