Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
xG
1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
55%
The model makes Brazil the likeliest winner at 42%, against 30% for Japan and 28% for a draw. Expected goals are 1.47 for Brazil and 1.19 for Japan, on a neutral venue. The edge is modest, so treat this as a lean, not a lock.
Brazil
Above average
Japan
Above average
9
Brazil
0
Draws
1
Japan