Our pick
Away Win
xG
0.7 – 1.4
Over 2.5
36%
Both score
40%
The model makes Colombia the likely winner at 54%, against the 25% usually seen in this competition. Expected goals are 1.44 for Colombia and 0.71 for Peru, so a low-scoring game is the base case, with under 2.5 at 64%. Treat it as a lean, not a sure thing.
Peru
Average
Colombia
Above average
2
Peru
3
Draws
5
Colombia