Our pick
Home Win
xG
1.9 – 0.6
Over 2.5
46%
Both score
38%
The model makes Morocco the clear favourite, with a 69% chance of a win against 10% for Zambia. That is well above the 49% home-win rate usually seen in this competition, which is why it is the strongest read. Goals markets are close to even.
Morocco
Above average
Zambia
Average
8
Morocco
1
Draws
1
Zambia