Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction, UEFA Champions League
Our pick
Home or Away (12)
78.0%
xG
1.9 – 1.5
Over 2.5
65%
Both score
65%
Form
Full stats →
Atlético MadridWWWWL
Real MadridWLWWWMatch analysis
Model generatedAtlético Madrid favoured at 48%, in a high-scoring game
The model projects 1.91 goals for Atlético Madrid and 1.46 for Real Madrid, giving 48% for the home win, 22% for the draw and 30% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 1866 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 9%
- Expected goals: 1.91 - 1.46
- Clean sheet chance: Atlético Madrid 23%, Real Madrid 15%
Match result
1X2Atlético Madrid48.4%
Draw22.0%
Real Madrid29.6%
Atlético MadridLast 10 gamesReal Madrid1.90Points per game2.40
2.0Goals scored per game2.5
1.5Goals conceded per game1.1
90%Over 2.5 goals80%
60%Both teams scored70%
30%Clean sheets20%
10%Failed to score10%
Recent results
UEFA Champions League
Full table →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Barcelona | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 |  Manchester United | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 |  Como | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 |  Stuttgart | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Manchester City | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 |  Aston Villa | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Lens | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Real Betis | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 |  Liverpool | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 |  Arsenal | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 |  Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 |  Villarreal | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 |  Lille | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atlético Madrid | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 |  Porto | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 |  RB Leipzig | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 |  Feyenoord | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Top four Bottom three
Head to head
Last 8 meetings2
Atlético Madrid
2
Draws
4
Real Madrid
- 12 Mar 25Atlético Madrid 1-0 Real Madrid
- 4 Mar 25Real Madrid 2-1 Atlético Madrid
- 10 May 17Atlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
- 2 May 17Real Madrid 3-0 Atlético Madrid
- 28 May 16Real Madrid 5-3 Atlético Madrid