Derby County vs Birmingham City prediction, English Championship
English Championship · Round 44Full time
Derby County
1-2
Birmingham City
Model's readPride Park Stadium
1 35%X 29%2 36%
Our pick
Under 3.5 Goals
74.7%
xG
1.3 – 1.3
Over 2.5
47%
Both score
53%
Form
Full stats →Derby CountyDDLLLBirmingham CityWDWLDMatch analysis
Model generatedBirmingham City favoured at 36%, in a middling game
The model projects 1.27 goals for Derby County and 1.28 for Birmingham City, giving 35% for the home win, 29% for the draw and 36% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 1000 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 14%
- Expected goals: 1.27 - 1.28
- Clean sheet chance: Derby County 28%, Birmingham City 28%
Match result
1X2Derby County35.5%
Draw28.7%
Birmingham City35.8%
Model rating
All ratings →5.0
Derby County
Average
5.8
Birmingham City
Above average
Derby CountyLast 10 gamesBirmingham City0.60Points per game1.40
0.9Goals scored per game1.4
1.7Goals conceded per game1.7
60%Over 2.5 goals70%
60%Both teams scored80%
10%Clean sheets20%
30%Failed to score10%
Recent results
English Championship
Full table →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 |  West Ham United | 8 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 |  Queens Park Rangers | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Stoke | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 |  Charlton Athletic | 8 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham City | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 |  Lincoln City | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | +9 | 10 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Bolton Wanderers | 8 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 |  Norwich | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 |  Sheffield United | 8 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 |  Cardiff | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 |  Preston North End | 8 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | -8 | 4 |
Top four Bottom three
Head to head
Last 10 meetings4
Derby County
3
Draws
3
Birmingham City
- 12 Sept 26Derby County 1-2 Birmingham City
- 21 Mar 26Derby County 1-0 Birmingham City
- 26 Dec 25Birmingham City 1-1 Derby County
- 30 Jan 22Derby County 2-2 Birmingham City
- 10 Sept 21Birmingham City 2-0 Derby County