Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
xG
1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.5
55%
Both score
59%
The model gives Kazakhstan the edge at 38%, against 35% for Moldova and 27% for a draw, so this is a narrow lean. Expected goals are 1.40 for Moldova and 1.47 for Kazakhstan. Treat it as a close game, not a confident pick.
Moldova
Average
Kazakhstan
Average
4
Moldova
1
Draws
3
Kazakhstan