Portsmouth vs Derby County prediction, English Championship
English Championship · Round 42Full time
Portsmouth
2-2
Derby County
Model's readFratton Park
1 42%X 28%2 30%
Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
74.3%
xG
1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.5
48%
Both score
53%
Form
Full stats →PortsmouthDDWLLDerby CountyDDLLLMatch analysis
Model generatedPortsmouth favoured at 42%, in a middling game
The model projects 1.44 goals for Portsmouth and 1.16 for Derby County, giving 42% for the home win, 28% for the draw and 30% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 1000 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 13%
- Expected goals: 1.44 - 1.16
- Clean sheet chance: Portsmouth 31%, Derby County 24%
Match result
1X2Portsmouth42.4%
Draw28.1%
Derby County29.6%
Model rating
All ratings →5.1
Portsmouth
Average
5.0
Derby County
Average
PortsmouthLast 10 gamesDerby County1.20Points per game0.60
1.4Goals scored per game0.9
1.5Goals conceded per game1.7
60%Over 2.5 goals60%
70%Both teams scored60%
20%Clean sheets10%
20%Failed to score30%
Recent results
English Championship
Full table →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 |  West Ham United | 8 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 |  Queens Park Rangers | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Stoke | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 |  Charlton Athletic | 8 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 |  Birmingham City | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 |  Lincoln City | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | +9 | 10 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Bolton Wanderers | 8 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 |  Norwich | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 |  Sheffield United | 8 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 |  Cardiff | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 |  Preston North End | 8 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | -8 | 4 |
Top four Bottom three
Head to head
Last 10 meetings0
Portsmouth
6
Draws
4
Derby County
- 1 Sept 26Portsmouth 0-2 Derby County
- 16 Mar 26Portsmouth 0-1 Derby County
- 20 Dec 25Derby County 1-1 Portsmouth
- 12 Apr 25Portsmouth 2-2 Derby County
- 13 Dec 24Derby County 4-0 Portsmouth