Our pick
Home Win
xG
2.1 – 0.7
Over 2.5
53%
Both score
46%
The model makes Morocco clear favourites at 67%, against a 48% home-win norm in this competition. Expected goals are 2.05 for Morocco and 0.74 for Uganda. The goals markets sit close to even, so the home win is the main read.
Morocco
Above average
Uganda
Above average
1
Morocco
0
Draws
1
Uganda