Our pick
Away or Draw (X2)
xG
1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.5
52%
Both score
57%
The model gives Away or Draw 67%, well above the 52% norm for this competition, so the gap is the real signal. Vanuatu are the stronger side on the model's ratings, and they have scored 13 and conceded 8 across their last six. Papua New Guinea have been tighter at home, but the model still sees the most likely outcomes leaning away from a home win.
Papua New Guinea
Average
Vanuatu
Above average
1
Papua New Guinea
1
Draws
1
Vanuatu