Our pick
Home Win
xG
2.3 – 1.0
Over 2.5
65%
Both score
59%
The model makes Senegal the favourite, with a 65% home win against a 48% norm for home wins in this competition. Its expected goals are 2.31 for Senegal and 1.05 for Gambia. A probability is not a guarantee, and Gambia still win about 15% of the time.
Senegal
Above average
Gambia
Average
5
Senegal
5
Draws
0
Gambia