Ajax vs Excelsior prediction, Dutch Eredivisie
Our pick Strong
Home or Draw (1X)
79.5%
xG
2.0 – 1.2
Over 2.5
62%
Both score
61%
Form
Full stats →
AjaxDDWWL
ExcelsiorDLDWWMatch analysis
Model generatedAjax favoured at 56%, in a high-scoring game
The model projects 2.02 goals for Ajax and 1.18 for Excelsior, giving 56% for the home win, 24% for the draw and 20% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 1000 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 11%
- Expected goals: 2.02 - 1.18
- Clean sheet chance: Ajax 31%, Excelsior 13%
Match result
1X2Ajax55.6%
Draw23.9%
Excelsior20.5%
Model rating
All ratings →7.4
Ajax
Strong
5.4
Excelsior
Average
AjaxLast 10 gamesExcelsior1.90Points per game1.80
3.1Goals scored per game2.2
1.7Goals conceded per game1.4
90%Over 2.5 goals90%
90%Both teams scored80%
10%Clean sheets20%
0%Failed to score0%
Recent results
Dutch Eredivisie
Full table →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 7 | +18 | 17 |
| 4 |  Twente | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | +12 | 14 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 7 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | -7 | 5 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 7 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 7 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | -14 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 7 | -14 | 2 |
Top four Bottom three
Head to head
Last 10 meetings5
Ajax
4
Draws
1
Excelsior
- 19 Sept 26Ajax 2-2 Excelsior
- 1 Feb 26Excelsior 2-2 Ajax
- 22 Nov 25Ajax 1-2 Excelsior
- 24 Apr 24Ajax 2-2 Excelsior
- 19 Aug 23Excelsior 2-2 Ajax