Our pick
Under 3.5 Goals
xG
1.5 – 1.1
Over 2.5
46%
Both score
51%
The model projects 1.46 goals for Azerbaijan and 1.06 for Tajikistan, giving 45% for the home win, 28% for the draw and 26% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 10105 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
Azerbaijan
Average
Tajikistan
Average
3
Azerbaijan
0
Draws
0
Tajikistan