Our pick
Under 3.5 Goals
xG
1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.5
44%
Both score
50%
The model makes Azerbaijan the likeliest winner at 43%, with a draw at 29% and Malta at 28%. Expected goals are 1.38 for Azerbaijan and 1.07 for Malta, so a low-scoring game is the base case. Over 2.5 goals sits at 44%.
Azerbaijan
Average
Malta
Average
2
Azerbaijan
3
Draws
4
Malta