Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
xG
1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.5
54%
Both score
58%
The model makes Iceland the most likely winner at 38%, with Bulgaria at 34% and a draw at 27%. Expected goals are 1.37 for Bulgaria and 1.46 for Iceland, and over 2.5 goals sits at 54%. That is close to even, so the goals markets offer little clear edge.
Bulgaria
Average
Iceland
Above average
3
Bulgaria
1
Draws
1
Iceland