Our pick
Under 3.5 Goals
xG
1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.5
46%
Both score
51%
The model projects 1.38 goals for Tajikistan and 1.12 for Azerbaijan, giving 42% for the home win, 29% for the draw and 30% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 10105 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
Tajikistan
Average
Azerbaijan
Average
0
Tajikistan
0
Draws
3
Azerbaijan