Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
xG
1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.5
54%
Both score
58%
The model leans Iceland at 38%, with Bulgaria at 34% and a draw at 27%. Expected goals are 1.37 for Bulgaria and 1.46 for Iceland, so it sees a close game overall. Over 2.5 goals is just above even at 54%, so the goals markets look close to a coin flip.
Bulgaria
Average
Iceland
Above average
3
Bulgaria
1
Draws
1
Iceland