Estrela Amadora vs Arouca prediction, Portuguese Primeira Liga
Portuguese Primeira Liga · Round 15Full time
Estrela Amadora
1-4
Arouca
Model's readEstádio José Gomes
1 37%X 24%2 39%
Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
78.0%
xG
1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.5
55%
Both score
58%
Form
Full stats →Estrela AmadoraLDWDWAroucaDLDWLMatch analysis
Model generatedArouca favoured at 39%, in a middling game
The model projects 1.42 goals for Estrela Amadora and 1.46 for Arouca, giving 37% for the home win, 24% for the draw and 39% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 1000 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 11%
- Expected goals: 1.42 - 1.46
- Clean sheet chance: Estrela Amadora 23%, Arouca 24%
Match result
1X2Estrela Amadora36.8%
Draw24.4%
Arouca38.8%
Model rating
All ratings →4.6
Estrela Amadora
Average
5.7
Arouca
Above average
Estrela AmadoraLast 10 gamesArouca1.20Points per game1.80
1.8Goals scored per game1.8
1.9Goals conceded per game1.1
80%Over 2.5 goals70%
80%Both teams scored60%
10%Clean sheets30%
20%Failed to score20%
Recent results
Portuguese Primeira Liga
Full table →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 7 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 7 | +15 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 7 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 |  Braga | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 |  Académico de Viseu | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 7 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Marítimo | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 7 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 |  Vitória de Guimarães | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |  Nacional de Madeira | 7 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 7 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril Praia | 7 | -7 | 2 |
Top four Bottom three
Head to head
Last 6 meetings2
Estrela Amadora
1
Draws
3
Arouca
- 19 Apr 26Arouca 1-0 Estrela Amadora
- 7 Dec 25Estrela Amadora 3-1 Arouca
- 19 Apr 25Arouca 1-0 Estrela Amadora
- 9 Dec 24Estrela Amadora 2-1 Arouca
- 5 May 24Arouca 0-0 Estrela Amadora