Our pick
Home Win
xG
2.0 – 0.7
Over 2.5
51%
Both score
46%
The model makes Senegal favourites at 66%, with a 22% draw and 13% away win. Their expected goals are 1.97 against Botswana's 0.74, driven by Senegal's attack facing a weak Botswana defence. The 66% stands out because this competition's norm is 49%, though this is a neutral venue.
Senegal
Above average
Botswana
Average
3
Senegal
0
Draws
0
Botswana