Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction — English Premier League

Our pick

Home Win

60.0%

xG

1.9 – 0.9

Over 2.5

51%

Both score

49%

Form

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ArsenalWLWWW

Aston VillaWWLWD

Match analysis

Enhanced

Arsenal home win is the model's strongest pick at 60%

The model makes Arsenal clear favourites, with a 60% home win against a 42% norm for this competition. That gap is the main reason it is the strongest read. Expected goals are 1.85 for Arsenal and 0.85 for Aston Villa. The goals markets sit near 50-50, so they offer little edge.

Match result

1X2

Arsenal60.0%

Draw24.3%

Aston Villa15.7%

Model rating

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8.3

Arsenal

Strong

5.8

Aston Villa

Above average

ArsenalLast 10 games

Aston Villa

2.50Points per game1.90

1.8Goals scored per game1.9

0.9Goals conceded per game1.5

60%Over 2.5 goals80%

50%Both teams scored60%

40%Clean sheets20%

10%Failed to score30%

Recent results

ArsenalWLWWW

Aston VillaWWLWD

English Premier League

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	+8	15
2▲	Brighton and Hove Albion 2-0	6	+13	13
3▼	Arsenal	5	+4	12
4	Brentford 2-2	6	+6	10
5	Leeds United	5	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	+3	9
7	Everton	5	+3	9
8▲	Ipswich Town 2-1	6	-3	9
9▼	Hull City	5	+2	8
10▼	Newcastle United	5	0	8
11▼	Chelsea	5	-2	7
12	Manchester United	5	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	-1	5
14▲	Aston Villa 2-2	6	-5	5
15	Crystal Palace	5	-5	4
16▼	Sunderland 0-2	6	-6	4
17	Bournemouth	5	-2	3
18	Coventry City	5	-9	3
19	Fulham 1-2	6	-4	2
20	Tottenham Hotspur	5	-6	2