Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction, English Premier League
English Premier League · Round 3Full time
Arsenal
2-1
Chelsea
Model's readEmirates Stadium
1 59%X 24%2 17%
Our pick
Home Win
59.3%
xG
1.9 – 0.9
Over 2.5
54%
Both score
52%
Form
Full stats →ArsenalWLWWWChelseaLDWLWMatch analysis
EnhancedArsenal to win at home: model gives 59%
The model makes Arsenal the favourite at 59%, against a 42% norm for this competition, so the home win is the strongest read. Expected goals are 1.91 for Arsenal and 0.93 for Chelsea. Treat it as a lean, not a guarantee, since the draw still carries 24%.
Match result
1X2Arsenal59.3%
Draw24.0%
Chelsea16.7%
Model rating
All ratings →8.3
Arsenal
Strong
5.7
Chelsea
Above average
ArsenalLast 10 gamesChelsea2.50Points per game1.60
1.8Goals scored per game2.1
0.9Goals conceded per game1.9
60%Over 2.5 goals80%
50%Both teams scored70%
40%Clean sheets10%
10%Failed to score20%
Recent results
English Premier League
Full table →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2▲ |  Brighton and Hove Albion 1-0 | 6 | +12 | 13 |
| 3▼ | Arsenal | 5 | +4 | 12 |
| 4 |  Brentford89′ 2-2 | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 5▲ | Chelsea 5-1 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 6▼ |  Leeds United | 5 | +4 | 9 |
| 7▼ |  Liverpool | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 8▼ |  Everton | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 9▲ |  Ipswich Town 2-1 | 6 | -3 | 9 |
| 10▼ |  Hull City | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 11▼ |  Newcastle United | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Manchester United | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |  Nottingham Forest | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14▲ |  Aston Villa89′ 2-2 | 6 | -5 | 5 |
| 15▼ |  Sunderland 0-1 | 6 | -5 | 4 |
| 16▼ |  Crystal Palace | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth 1-5 | 6 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 |  Coventry City | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |  Fulham 1-2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 20 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Top four Bottom three Moving with 4 games in play
Head to head
Last 10 meetings7
Arsenal
3
Draws
0
Chelsea
- 6 Sept 26Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea
- 1 Mar 26Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea
- 3 Feb 26Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea
- 14 Jan 26Chelsea 2-3 Arsenal
- 30 Nov 25Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal