Swansea vs Derby County Prediction — English Championship

Our pick

Home or Draw (1X)

75.6%

xG

1.6 – 1.0

Over 2.5

49%

Both score

52%

Form

Full stats →

SwanseaWWWLD

Derby CountyDDLLL

Match analysis

Model generated

Swansea favoured at 48%, in a middling game

The model projects 1.57 goals for Swansea and 1.05 for Derby County, giving 48% for the home win, 27% for the draw and 24% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 1000 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 13%
Expected goals: 1.57 - 1.05
Clean sheet chance: Swansea 35%, Derby County 21%

Match result

1X2

Swansea48.5%

Draw27.2%

Derby County24.4%

Model rating

All ratings →

6.7

Swansea

Above average

5.0

Derby County

Average

SwanseaLast 10 games

Derby County

2.00Points per game0.60

1.5Goals scored per game0.9

0.8Goals conceded per game1.7

60%Over 2.5 goals60%

50%Both teams scored60%

40%Clean sheets10%

30%Failed to score30%

Recent results

SwanseaWWWLD

Derby CountyDDLLL

English Championship

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	8	+7	17
2	West Ham United	8	+11	15
3	Middlesbrough	8	+4	15
4	Wolverhampton Wanderers	7	+5	14
5	West Brom	8	+2	14
6	Queens Park Rangers	8	+3	13
7	Stoke	8	+1	13
8	Bristol City	8	-1	13
9	Charlton Athletic	8	-3	12
10	Birmingham City	8	+1	11
11	Millwall	8	0	11
12	Lincoln City	8	-1	11
13	Southampton	8	+9	10
14	Wrexham	8	-3	10
15	Bolton Wanderers	8	-4	10
16	Blackburn Rovers	8	0	9
17	Norwich	8	-1	9
18	Sheffield United	8	-2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	-1	8
20	Watford	8	-3	8
21	Cardiff	8	-2	7
22	Derby County	8	-7	5
23	Preston North End	8	-7	4
24	Burnley	8	-8	4