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Portugal vs Wales prediction, UEFA Nations League

UEFA Nations League · Round 1Full time

Portugal

1-0

Thu, 24 Sept

Wales

Model's readEstádio José Alvalade
1 64%X 23%2 13%

Our pick

Home Win

64.3%

xG

2.0 – 0.8

Over 2.5

51%

Both score

47%

Form

Full stats →
PortugalWWWWL
WalesLWLLL

Match analysis

Enhanced

Portugal home win is the model's strongest call at 64%

The model makes Portugal favourites at 64%, against a 46% norm for home wins in this competition, so that gap is the real signal. Expected goals are 1.95 for Portugal and 0.77 for Wales. Goals markets sit near 50-50, so there is little edge there.

Selections

Ask KiqStat about this match

Portugal v Wales

Model estimates, not facts. 18+, bet responsibly. See our record

Match result

1X2
Portugal64.3%
Draw22.6%
Wales13.1%

Model rating

All ratings →
6.8

Portugal

Above average

5.4

Wales

Average

PortugalLast 10 gamesWales
2.30Points per game1.00
1.9Goals scored per game1.4
0.8Goals conceded per game1.2
60%Over 2.5 goals30%
60%Both teams scored70%
30%Clean sheets0%
20%Failed to score30%

Recent results

PortugalWWWWL
  • 4 OctHNorway2-1
  • 1 OctADenmark4-2
  • 27 SeptANorway2-1
  • 24 SeptHWales1-0
  • 6 JulHSpain0-1
  • 2 JulHCroatia2-1
WalesLWLLL
  • 4 OctHDenmark0-1
  • 1 OctHNorway2-1
  • 27 SeptADenmark0-2
  • 24 SeptAPortugal0-1
  • 6 JunARomania1-2
  • 2 JunHGhana1-1

Head to head

Last 3 meetings

3

Portugal

0

Draws

0

Wales

  • 24 Sept 26Portugal 1-0 Wales
  • 6 Jul 16Portugal 2-0 Wales
  • 2 Jun 00Portugal 3-0 Wales
Every meeting between these two →