Our pick
Home Win
xG
2.3 – 0.8
Over 2.5
61%
Both score
50%
The model makes Russia clear favourites, with a 71% home win against a 48% norm for this competition. Expected goals are 2.34 for Russia and 0.80 for Nicaragua. That gap over the usual rate, not the raw percentage alone, is the main reason for this call.
Russia
Above average
Nicaragua
Average
1
Russia
0
Draws
0
Nicaragua