Our pick
Under 3.5 Goals
xG
1.7 – 0.8
Over 2.5
47%
Both score
47%
The model makes Mexico the favourite at 58% for a home win, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Peru. The main reason is Peru's attack, ranked 65th weakest, running into Mexico's defence, 19th best. Mexico's recent form has cooled, so this is a lean, not a sure thing.
Mexico
Average
Peru
Average
3
Mexico
4
Draws
3
Peru