Our pick
Under 3.5 Goals
xG
1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.5
45%
Both score
50%
The model projects 1.40 goals for Malta and 1.06 for Azerbaijan, giving 44% for the home win, 29% for the draw and 27% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 10105 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
Malta
Average
Azerbaijan
Average
4
Malta
3
Draws
2
Azerbaijan