Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
xG
1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.5
52%
Both score
57%
The model leans Croatia at 43%, against 30% for Slovenia and 27% for a draw. Expected goals are 1.52 to 1.24, a modest edge rather than a strong one. Croatia's recent form has run cold, which the model already partly prices in.
Croatia
Average
Slovenia
Above average
5
Croatia
4
Draws
1
Slovenia