Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
xG
1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.5
52%
Both score
56%
The model makes Croatia slight favourites, with 43% to win against 29% for Slovenia and 27% for a draw. Expected goals are 1.53 for Croatia and 1.22 for Slovenia, so the edge is modest. Croatia's recent form has been poor, and the model only partly prices that in.
Croatia
Average
Slovenia
Above average
5
Croatia
4
Draws
1
Slovenia