Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
xG
1.3 – 1.3
Over 2.5
48%
Both score
53%
The model makes Burundi slight favourites at 38%, with Kenya at 34% and a draw at 28%. Expected goals are 1.33 for Burundi and 1.25 for Kenya, so the margin is narrow. Burundi have failed to score in their last six, a form the model partly prices in through recency weighting.
Burundi
Average
Kenya
Above average
1
Burundi
2
Draws
2
Kenya