Burnley vs Derby County prediction, English Championship
Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
75.4%
xG
1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
54%
Form
Full stats →
BurnleyWDLDL
Derby CountyDDLLLMatch analysis
Model generatedBurnley favoured at 44%, in a middling game
The model projects 1.51 goals for Burnley and 1.15 for Derby County, giving 44% for the home win, 28% for the draw and 28% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 1000 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 13%
- Expected goals: 1.51 - 1.15
- Clean sheet chance: Burnley 32%, Derby County 22%
Match result
1X2Burnley44.4%
Draw27.5%
Derby County28.1%
Model rating
All ratings →7.0
Burnley
Strong
5.0
Derby County
Average
BurnleyLast 10 gamesDerby County0.80Points per game0.60
1.3Goals scored per game0.9
1.7Goals conceded per game1.7
60%Over 2.5 goals60%
80%Both teams scored60%
20%Clean sheets10%
10%Failed to score30%
Recent results
English Championship
Full table →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 |  West Ham United | 8 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 6▲ |  Southampton60′ 1-0 | 9 | +10 | 13 |
| 7▼ |  Queens Park Rangers | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 8▼ |  Stoke | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 9▼ |  Bristol City | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 10▼ |  Charlton Athletic | 8 | -3 | 12 |
| 11▼ |  Birmingham City | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12▼ |  Millwall | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 13▼ |  Lincoln City | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Bolton Wanderers | 8 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 |  Norwich | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 |  Sheffield United | 8 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 |  Portsmouth60′ 0-1 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 |  Cardiff | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 |  Preston North End | 8 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | -8 | 4 |
Top four Bottom three Moving with 1 game in play
Head to head
Last 10 meetings6
Burnley
4
Draws
0
Derby County
- 19 Sept 26Burnley 1-1 Derby County
- 26 Aug 25Burnley 2-1 Derby County
- 8 Apr 25Derby County 0-0 Burnley
- 10 Dec 24Burnley 0-0 Derby County
- 25 Jan 16Burnley 4-1 Derby County