Our pick
Over 1.5 Goals
xG
1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
54%
The model makes Tajikistan the pick at 44%, against 29% for Nepal and 28% for a draw. It projects 1.50 goals for Tajikistan and 1.17 for Nepal, so the edge is real but modest. Both teams to score sits at 54%, and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tajikistan
Average
Nepal
Above average
1
Tajikistan
0
Draws
0
Nepal