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Burnley vs Derby County prediction, English EFL Cup

English EFL Cup · Round 2Full time

Burnley

2-1

Tue, 26 Aug

Derby County

Model's readTurf Moor
1 39%X 27%2 34%

Our pick

Over 1.5 Goals

75.0%

xG

1.4 – 1.3

Over 2.5

50%

Both score

55%

Form

Full stats →
BurnleyWDLDL
Derby CountyDDLLL

Match analysis

Model generated

Burnley favoured at 39%, in a middling game

The model projects 1.38 goals for Burnley and 1.27 for Derby County, giving 39% for the home win, 27% for the draw and 34% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 2921 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

  • Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 13%
  • Expected goals: 1.38 - 1.27
  • Clean sheet chance: Burnley 28%, Derby County 25%

Selections

Ask KiqStat about this match

Burnley v Derby County

Model estimates, not facts. 18+, bet responsibly. See our record

Match result

1X2
Burnley39.0%
Draw27.3%
Derby County33.8%

Model rating

All ratings →
7.0

Burnley

Strong

5.0

Derby County

Average

BurnleyLast 10 gamesDerby County
0.80Points per game0.60
1.3Goals scored per game0.9
1.7Goals conceded per game1.7
60%Over 2.5 goals60%
80%Both teams scored60%
20%Clean sheets10%
10%Failed to score30%

Recent results

BurnleyWDLDL
  • 10 OctAWatford4-0
  • 19 SeptHDerby County1-1
  • 12 SeptASwansea1-3
  • 8 SeptAWrexham1-1
  • 5 SeptHBristol City1-2
  • 2 SeptHMiddlesbrough1-1
Derby CountyDDLLL
  • 10 OctHWrexham1-1
  • 19 SeptABurnley1-1
  • 12 SeptHBirmingham City1-2
  • 9 SeptHWest Brom0-1
  • 5 SeptAWest Ham United0-3
  • 1 SeptAPortsmouth2-0

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

6

Burnley

4

Draws

0

Derby County

  • 19 Sept 26Burnley 1-1 Derby County
  • 26 Aug 25Burnley 2-1 Derby County
  • 8 Apr 25Derby County 0-0 Burnley
  • 10 Dec 24Burnley 0-0 Derby County
  • 25 Jan 16Burnley 4-1 Derby County
Every meeting between these two →