Our pick Strong
Home Win
xG
2.8 – 0.8
Over 2.5
71%
Both score
54%
The model makes England strong favourites at 77%, with Costa Rica winning 8% of the time. The gap from the 48% competition norm is the main signal. Expected goals are 2.80 for England and 0.85 for Costa Rica, so over 2.5 goals sits at 71%.
England
Above average
Costa Rica
Average
2
England
1
Draws
0
Costa Rica