Our pick
Home or Away (12)
xG
1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.5
57%
Both score
61%
The model makes England slight favourites at 41%, with Spain on 33% and the draw on 26%. Expected goals are 1.58 for England and 1.39 for Spain, so over 2.5 goals sits at 57%. Treat it as a lean, not a sure thing.
England
Above average
Spain
Above average
2
England
1
Draws
7
Spain