Our pick
Home or Draw (1X)
xG
1.4 – 0.9
Over 2.5
39%
Both score
45%
The model's strongest read is Home or Draw (1X) at 77%, above the 72% norm for this competition. Mexico are favoured at 48% to win, but Ecuador's 73rd-weakest attack faces Mexico's 19th-best defence. Mexico have been running colder than their season, so the win price is not a lock.
Mexico
Average
Ecuador
Above average
3
Mexico
4
Draws
3
Ecuador