Our pick
Under 2.5 Goals
xG
1.0 – 0.9
Over 2.5
30%
Both score
38%
Mexico are the model's narrow pick at 38% to win, against 34% for a draw and 28% for Ecuador, on a neutral venue. The stronger signal is goals: Under 2.5 sits at 70%, well above the 52% norm for this competition. Most likely scorelines are 0-0 and 1-0.
Mexico
Average
Ecuador
Above average
3
Mexico
4
Draws
3
Ecuador