Our pick Strong
Home Win
xG
2.5 – 0.8
Over 2.5
66%
Both score
53%
The model projects 2.54 goals for Spain and 0.84 for Croatia, giving 74% for the home win, 17% for the draw and 10% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 10105 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
Spain
Above average
Croatia
Average
6
Spain
2
Draws
2
Croatia