Our pick
Away Win
xG
0.9 – 2.1
Over 2.5
57%
Both score
51%
The model makes Spain the pick at 65%, against 13% for a Croatia win and 21% for a draw. Spain's expected goals are 2.09 to Croatia's 0.86, and 65% is well above the 31% norm for away wins in this competition. The match is at a neutral venue, so no home edge is applied.
Croatia
Average
Spain
Above average
2
Croatia
2
Draws
6
Spain