Our pick
Away or Draw (X2)
xG
1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.5
57%
Both score
61%
The model projects 1.44 goals for Italy and 1.53 for France, giving 35% for the home win, 26% for the draw and 39% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 5145 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
Italy
Above average
France
Above average
2
Italy
3
Draws
5
France