Our pick
Home Win
xG
2.3 – 1.0
Over 2.5
64%
Both score
57%
The model makes Portugal the favourite at 66%, against a 46% norm for this competition. Expected goals are 2.30 for Portugal and 0.98 for Croatia. Treat it as a probability, not a sure thing.
Portugal
Above average
Croatia
Average
7
Portugal
2
Draws
1
Croatia